Brand – Australia 2028

I expect One Nation to improve here and overtake the Greens especially if the Liberals continue to falter.

For the Libs to win this seat they will need a TPP statewide of around 60% which they last got in 1977 so they need to overperform the 2013 result which was actually worse than 1996 statewide in WA.

nimalan i reckon hastie could win here if he ran and the current member retired. he did well in the parts of brand he took in this year. and increased his margin. though he wont because it would be very marginal and why risk it

@ John
There were 4 booths that were transferred to Canning from Brand. If you average those 4 Labor actually won 51% TPP and Labor would have put no effort in those booths but if they feel they are under threat in Brand Labor would sandbag resources and write off Cowan, Swan etc. Brand has some very working class booths such as Medina, Leda etc which even in 2013 Labor got more than 60% so it is a very high bar to win so Hastie would not risk it. If Hastie was leader and Labor was headed for a landslide defeat it is very likely Hastie having a Home state advanatge will overperform Tony Abbott 2013 result but he would still need about 60% of statewide TPP to have a chance in Brand which Fraser got in 1977. Tony Abbott did better than John Howard in WA but Brand on current boundaries will still be 4.4% Labor.

i dont have the actual quote but im pretty sure Madeleine King or at least some Labor MP said ‘that if those voters now in Canning could have voted for Andrew Hastie in 2022, they would have’ or something to that effect.

those 4 booths voted 63, 66, 65 and 62 in 2022. so an avg of 64% so thats a 13% swing. in a bad year for libs where other seats swung to labor.

Yes but Hastie was directly on the Ballot in Canning and those 4 booths. Even if Hastie was leader and still the member for Canning he will not be directly on the ballot in Brand he may indeed get an above average swing in Brand but a 17% swing is hard when Labor will sandbag it. Brand was a status quo this time. I concede he will have a homestate advanatage no diagreement but unless he wants to directly try his luck and run directly in Brand he will need a big statewide result in WA.

A Hastie leadership will mean Tangney would be written off though regardless of any home state advantage. He is the original advocate of the Lib’s hawkish stance to China, even more so than Dutton.

Given much of the Australian Right is beginning to be oppose to multiculturalism including the Christian Right and Libertarians. If this sentiments begins to spread to the Coalition, how would it fare?

@ Marh
Back in the 1990s when Hanson first arose the Christian Right were Pro-Multicultural and condemned Hanson including people like Fred Nile nowadays they are more friendly.

@Nimalan, I think if the recent anti-multicultural sentiment becomes influenced in the Federal Coalition, NSW and VIC Coalition would likely had revolted and makes it much harder for the Coalition to win back Metropolitan seats since due to CALD Voters would likely see them as a racist party and the younger generation are less hostile to multiculturalism and would likely see them as old-fashioned.

@ Marh
I agree thats why even Brad Battin condemed the March for Austalia. The issue is if the Libs dont win back more Tealish seats then they need to win CALD seats like Gorton, Werriwa, Hawke etc instead but being seen as Anglo Nationalist does not play well in those areas nor in parts of McEwan like Donnybrook, Kalkallo etc. There just are not enough White working class seats that Libs can win instead the possibilities are Blair, Hunter, Paterson , Whitlam, Bendigo and Ballarat but that is no where near enough to win government even a minority.

Nimalan/Marh, good points. I would add that even in the teal friendly seats (inner city, affluent suburbs of the major capital cities), the voters there would not be receptive to the anti-immigration sentiment raised by One Nation and the right faction of the Coalition due to their greater education and more frequent interactions with other individuals from CALD minorities even though most would be of ethnically white, European type backgrounds.

This is seen in other western democracies (like UK and USA), where tertiary educated white voters are more progressive leaning and supportive of multiculturalism unlike working class whites without a higher education background.

@Yoh An, it is interesting thought for the right faction of the Coalition as most are current not anti-multicultural and have multicultural networks due to their desire to appeal CALD Voters on their Social Conservativism.

@ Marh
One issue is that Islamphobia has now risen following October 7 on the right faction wheras Before October 7 it seemed that Anti-Muslim sentiment was reducing.

@Nimalan, it was initially thought that Muslim would eventually be a bit like what is Southern and Eastern Europeans today in being no longer hostile (albeit with a higher challenge) but October 7 undone everything

@ Marh
The Question really is do the Christian Right feel an affinity to Muslims if it was not for Global Politics they both worship an Abrahamic God. Can they be included an a Pan-Abrahamic identity? Would Conservative Christians feel a greater affinity to Pakistan over Hindu Majority India. Religiously speaking Christians have more in common with Muslims than they do with Hindus, Buddhists and Sikhs so it is a thught worth pondering.
With Southern and Eastern Europeans a Pan-Christian, Pan European identity includes them so as time has passed and they have beneffited from integration and social mobility this occured.

@Nimalan

My instinct would be to think that it’s not possible, but hey, Catholics and Protestants have despised each other for most of history since the Reformation, yet nowadays are able to see each other as allies. Something similar can be said of Christians and Jews.

@ Nicholas
Actually i made a comment in the Calwell thread about how the Irish Conflict once divided Australia (comparing to Middle East conflict) and before the Aston by-election the only other time a government won a seat of the opposition was the Kalgroolie by-election due to comments the sitting MP made about the Irish War of Independence. Today that is largely forgotton as you say and they see themselves as allies.
With Christians and Jews, it is also interesting. Right wing Antisemetism still exists but it very much fringe
I think the change maybe because in the Old World of Continental Europe today there far fewer Jews and they are no longer main minority so do not get targeted or scapegoated. In the Anglosphere the number of Jews is actually greater than in 1945 but the Anglosphere has become more diverse and they are not only minority group so the cultural faultlines are less clear. Also in the Anglosphere which is more multiracial, race has often been more of an issue than religion for example African Americans facing much worse discrimination despite sharing Christianity. During the White Australia policy Jewish immigration was allowed but Christians of colour were not allowed.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/calwell2022#comment-814753

@Nimalan – I am a product of that Irish conflict as my family are Irish Catholics from Northern Ireland who left during the Troubles. I am a dual citizen and am in residence in Belfast from June to September most years. I am too young to have experienced any of the war or issues as an immigrant but there is an emotional component as well as it has shaped my politics considerably. For example I am strongly pro-Republic for those reasons.

That said anti semitism still exists on the fringes of the left and the right but it’s a shadow of the experience that may have existed before the 1970s and during the White Australia years. In those days (worldwide) if you weren’t a white male Protestant of western European descent you faced push back in life in many situations. Even Italians had issues.

As it relates to current politics, the differences between “ethnic” groups is much greater now because for example I myself blend into society and no one has an idea of my background for the most part. CALD groups especially Asians and to a lesser extent Muslim there will always be a limiting factor to assimilation due to visible appearance. Even then history has shown that once you start getting into the generations that were born in country that breaks down. When a population still has a high percentage of people that are not native the divisions will persist. For various reasons due to lifestyle and cultural affinity. Sometimes language barrier.

It is important to note that the efficacy in terms of politics and voting of the differences in ethnic groups is most pronounced as you move up the age line. Surveys have shown that for the population under 45 they are not activated by immigration to the same extent. So for example to the extent that One Nation has grown in primary votes the ON voter is much older. Some of the negative reaction to immigration by the white working class is due to the perceived threat to jobs and economic mobility. As manual labor oriented jobs disappear due to technology and changing circumstances there is a perception by some they are being displaced. But that is a declining cohort so there’s only so much political opportunity there to exploit.

@ Craig
Thanks for sharing our personal insights much appreciated. I think your following points are interesting
1. Difference between ethnic groups are greater these days especially due to being visably different especially for Non Europeans
2. I do agree that over generations that have lived in a country the lines can get blurred especially as chance of intermarriage increase and sometimes multiracial people can pass. Ashton Agar and myself have South Asian heritage but he is European passing with an European sounding name and much lighter skin than myself.
3. In a country like Australia there will always be a large overseas born population even if earlier waves start to assimilate so i think the division will still be there especially those yet to assimilate.
4. I do expect that those who have intermarried or assimilated will likely leave seats like Fowler, Blaxland, Calwell and Rankin so i dont think it really opens up an opperunity for Liberals in such red wall seats. In a seat like Scullin, the Libs i think are making inroads into Southern and Eastern Europeans but as the area has affordable housing there is a growth in the Non European component which i suspect will offset the trend.

Obviously he won’t run there because he’s based in mandurah. But never underestimate the power of a home state advantage. We saw Rudd get swings up to 14% in 2007 in Qld. Wa like qld hates it when leaders in far distant capitol tell them what to do. Look at what happened to Scomo. Obviously it would have been better if the libs could have dented the labor margins from 2022. But brand barely moved from its 2022 result despite the blunders of Dutton and the liberal party. While Hastie may not be very well known in the rest of the country I’m sure he’s more known in wa. By the time 2028 roles around the wa state govt will also be well into its 3rd term. And don’t forget it’s hard to sandbag seats when you think they’re safe and you’ve got 90+ seats plus other seats of which 70 are less safer. This is labors safest seat in WA they are gonna try and resource Pearce Bullwinkle and Moore to hold those seats. On a 2cp.

Demographic wise it’s about 97% white 94% from UK countries the other 3% italy.

Top 3 countries of birth are Australia England and NZ.

About 1/3 are religious of some Christian denomination with the other two top responses being no religion and not stated.

very low language other the english

80%+ English only

Occupations are favourable to lnp

Not to mention the defence industry is going to be key here with aukus playing a key role which means more defence families and related jobs coming.

Let’s say Hastie gets a 7% swing here. Along with a larger swing in his parts of of Rockingham. Obviously labor will likely win the next election barring a major collapse. But it’s not out of the realm of possibility. That it could be won.

I reckon Hastie would win Pearce Moore and Bullwinkle easily. Would probly be able to appeal to voters in Curtin as well. Tangey I think he will give it a shot. The China issue might be a problem but I hope most Chinese people are reasonable enough to see they aren’t against the Chinese people but the dictatorship. Morrison made the mistake of offending wa, China so that didnt help them there. Anne Aly will be 61 after the 2028 election and if wa gwts another seat with and cowan moves west. To move favourable lib boundaries. Suddenly she’s 64 in 2031 and labor looks like its gonna lose govt so she doesnt want to spend the rest of her life in opposition. The bounce in the lib vote in wa would also probably help Kate Huletts cause in wa. And labor can’t withstand anything there so theyre throwing resources at Fremantle as well.

In 2007, despite Labor getting a statewide swing to them, they actually lost seats in WA. Could be put down to Rudd rolling WA’s favourite son Beazley, or it could be put down to the State Labor government being unpopular.

Home state advantage is definitely a thing, but can Hastie have that big of an impact?

I reckon so yes. WA consider themselves close to an Independent country (not through lack of trying). So Hastie would probably be able to galvanise that. Remember the only real way you can get there is to fly unless you want to drive for 24hours+ or spend a small fortune on a train ticket.

If Dutton had of lost his seat but still managed to recover somewhat and not lost moore and Bullwinkle and regained curtin. It might have been and easier task. The libs would then not having to spend resources there and could have focused on Pearce and dare I say brand. At the moment it will probably be a 2 election strategy. Win back Pearce moore Bullwinkle and maybe curtin. Force labor to lose Fremantle. Maybe stretch tangey. Suddenly labor is trying to win back someo of.those. by 2031 labor could be into its 4th term state level and 3rd federally. Trumps a distant memory.

@ John
I agree with the following points no disagreement
1. Hastie will have a Home state advanatage and this effect is greater in a smaller state like WA which has only ever produced 1 PM.
2. A 7% swing in Brand is very possible in 2018 and another 7% in 2031 that would take ALP TPP to only 53% TPP. That is better than what Libs got in 2013- a total of 14% swing from 2025
3. The remaining 3% is hard though and Labor maybe able sandbag it.
4. I concede demographics are White working class not Ethnic working class like Calwell so it is easier for a realignment strategy
5. The Defence industry is present here that will help Hastie. However, there is also greater unionisation which probably will help Labor sandbag it
6. If Labor is smart and willing to swollow its pride it will realise that Pearce, Moore and Bullwinkle are not seats that Labor can hold long term so they need to be willing to sacrifice it to hold a seat like Brand
7. However, if Labor is able to retain a seat like Swan which is more Diverse, Socially Progressive and Tealish in parts maybe Labor can afford to loose Brand for 1-2 terms.

John….Brand on current boundaries is a Labor seat.. unless it spreads into the
Bunbury suburbs it will stay that say